Update: The Number of People Not Up to Date on Vaccination in Counties with Elevated COVID-19 Community Levels is Growing


With the Omicron wave of COVID-19 sweeping the nation, we beforehand calculated the quantity of people that weren’t updated with vaccination in susceptible areas as of June 2, 2022. Particularly, we checked out counties labeled by the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) has having “medium” or “excessive” COVID-19 community levels, signifying not solely that new COVID instances had been on the rise but in addition strains on hospital capability. Since then, the BA.5 Omicron variant, which seems to be much more contagious and is ready to evade prior immunity, has grow to be dominant, driving up instances and hospitalizations even additional.

Now, lower than two months later, the share of the inhabitants dwelling in medium or excessive neighborhood degree counties and the variety of folks in these counties who will not be updated on vaccination have grown considerably; as well as, most who will not be updated at the moment are dwelling in counties with excessive neighborhood ranges. We offer an replace right here, as of July 21, 2022.

Findings

  • The share of the U.S. inhabitants dwelling in counties with medium or excessive COVID-19 neighborhood ranges is 87% or 283 million folks. That is up from 55% of the inhabitants (180 million folks) in early June. Additionally, in distinction to early June, most reside in excessive neighborhood degree counties (55% of the inhabitants now in comparison with 21% in early June).
  • The variety of folks not updated on vaccination in susceptible counties has jumped to 198 million, up from 120 million. This represents a 65% enhance since June 2. Most of those people (139 million) stay in counties with excessive neighborhood ranges, representing a rise from simply 46 million folks in such counties in early June. The share of these not updated on vaccination dwelling in excessive degree counties has additionally grown, from 20% in early June to 70% now.

  • Of the 198 million not updated on vaccination in medium and excessive neighborhood degree counties:
    • 73 million are unvaccinated, together with 50.4 million dwelling in counties with excessive COVID-19 neighborhood ranges (up from 14 million in excessive degree counties in early June).
    • 29.8 million are partially vaccinated, together with 20.9 million who’re in excessive degree counties (up from 8 million).
    • 95.4 million are vaccinated however not but boosted, together with 67.7 million in excessive degree counties (up from 25 million).

Most Individuals will not be updated with their COVID-19 vaccines. As of July 21, 2022, 227.8 million Individuals (70%) had been unvaccinated, had not accomplished their main sequence, or had not gotten a booster dose. In every state, not less than half the inhabitants will not be updated on COVID-19 vaccines. In Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia, over 80% of individuals are not but updated on COVID-19 vaccines.

Implications

In simply a short while, with the unfold of the most recent COVID-19 Omicron variant, the variety of folks within the U.S. who’re notably susceptible to the impacts of COVID-19, as a result of they don’t seem to be updated on vaccination and stay in susceptible counties, has grown significantly, rising from 120 million in early June to 198 million now. Furthermore, an excellent higher share of individuals now stay in counties with excessive neighborhood ranges. Essentially the most susceptible amongst them – those that stay unvaccinated and stay in counties with excessive neighborhood ranges – has grown from 14 million to 50.4 million.

CDC recommends that each one folks masks indoors in areas which have excessive COVID-19 neighborhood ranges, and that folks dwelling in medium-level counties masks based mostly on their private danger, however most jurisdictions and services don’t require masking. These up to date knowledge illustrate how shortly the present wave is spreading and rising danger throughout the nation. These knowledge underscore the numerous vulnerability to COVID-19 sickness that also exists presently, greater than a 12 months since vaccines grew to become extensively accessible within the U.S. to most individuals. As such, they level to the significance of different public well being measures, equivalent to masking and testing, along with vaccination, in lots of components of the nation.

COVID-19 Neighborhood Stage: COVID-19 neighborhood degree knowledge had been sourced from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) “United States COVID-19 Neighborhood Ranges by County,” utilizing data launched on July 21, 2022. Counties missing a COVID-19 neighborhood degree had been excluded.

COVID-19 Vaccinations: County-level knowledge on COVID-19 vaccinations had been sourced from the CDC “COVID-19 Vaccinations in the USA, County” utilizing data reported as July 20, 2022. Solely knowledge from the 50 states and District of Columbia had been included (knowledge from territories had been excluded as territories will not be included within the COVID-19 neighborhood degree dataset). Counties missing any vaccination knowledge had been additionally excluded from this evaluation. In some instances, the residence county is unknown, and subsequently these vaccination knowledge can’t be attributed to a selected county. Nevertheless, for states the place just one COVID-19 neighborhood degree was potential as of July 20, 2022, particularly, the District of Columbia (Medium), Maine (Low), and Rhode Island (Low), vaccination knowledge with unknown county data however attributed to those states had been coded because the corresponding COVID-19 neighborhood degree. Different vaccination knowledge with out county data and never attributed to those states had been excluded from the evaluation (accounting for about 13 million folks). Because of this, we’re doubtlessly overestimating the variety of folks not updated on vaccination. We outline updated on COVID-19 vaccination as individuals who have accomplished a main sequence and obtained a booster (besides for kids beneath age 5 who’re thought of to be updated with main sequence COVID-19 vaccination). We calculate the quantity not updated on COVID-19 vaccination as inhabitants in every county minus individuals who obtained main sequence and booster. We calculate the variety of unvaccinated folks because the distinction between the county inhabitants and the quantity of people that have obtained not less than a primary dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. In just a few counties the place the inhabitants estimate exceeds the quantity of people that have obtained a primary dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, the variety of unvaccinated people is assumed to be 0. We calculate people who find themselves partially vaccinated because the distinction between the quantity of people that accomplished a main sequence and those that obtained not less than one dose. We calculate the variety of folks that have accomplished a main sequence however not obtained a booster because the distinction between the quantity of people that have accomplished a main sequence and the quantity of people that have obtained a booster dose. Though the CDC now recommends that each one immunocompromised people and other people over the age of fifty obtain a second booster dose, there are at present no county-level knowledge accessible on the variety of booster doses obtained. Subsequently, we’re unable to seize what number of people are absolutely updated on COVID-19 vaccines. Moreover, kids beneath 5 years of age have not too long ago grow to be eligible to obtain COVID-19 vaccination. Kids on this age group which have obtained a primary dose are thought of to be partially vaccinated.

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